BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 13. Non-OECD crude runs are expected to grow steadily over the next two years, reaching 47.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025 and 48.5 mb/d in 2026, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said, Trend reports.
This growth is expected to be driven primarily by China, the Middle East, and Africa in 2025, with China, the Middle East, and Other Asia leading in 2026.
In July, non-OECD runs slipped by 170 kb/d month-on-month to 47.9 mb/d, broadly in line with the five-year average. The decline was led by Chinese refineries, which processed 14.9 mb/d, down 300 kb/d from June and below the 15.3 mb/d forecast. Chinese plants are awaiting confirmation of additional product export quotas, and subdued domestic fuel demand is weighing on refining margins. If state-owned enterprises are unable to access international markets to sell surplus products, crude runs may weaken in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Russian throughput was also affected, as ongoing Ukrainian attacks on refineries disrupted roughly 2 mb/d of capacity. The IEA estimates that these disruptions cut Russian runs by 250 kb/d in July, prompting a downward revision of the second-half 2025 forecast by 90 kb/d to 5.3 mb/d. Reduced processing has constrained naphtha and diesel exports and extended the ban on Russian gasoline exports to ensure a sufficient domestic supply.
Elsewhere, modest declines in Other Asia reflect the start of seasonal maintenance, which is expected to continue through October.
Despite July’s dip, the IEA projects non-OECD refining activity will remain robust, supporting global crude demand growth over the next two years.
