BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 20. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) has slightly revised its Brent price forecast for 2025, lifting it by $0.6 per barrel (b) to $76.8/b, while maintaining its outlook at $80.7/b for 2024, Trend reports.
Brent is expected to average $74.6/b in the fourth quarter of 2024, unchanged from previous projections but reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of $5.5/b from Q3 levels.
Economic uncertainties, including the implications of a potential second-term Trump presidency and persistent challenges in China’s economic recovery, weigh heavily on global oil demand prospects for 2025. Consequently, Brent prices are anticipated to remain in the low-to-mid $70s during the first half of the year. However, OPEC+ actions to balance the market and maintain inventory levels below the five-year average are expected to support prices in the $75-80/b range in the latter half of the year.
The broader 2025 price range is forecast to fluctuate between $65.6/b and $85.9/b, accounting for extreme scenarios. Downside risks dominate the outlook, particularly from demand-side pressures tied to slower growth in non-OECD economies, U.S. trade policy shifts, and China’s recovery uncertainties, potentially reducing prices by $3.3/b. On the supply side, surprises in non-OPEC+ production and weaker compliance with OPEC+ cuts could further weigh on prices, contributing to a $1.3/b downside adjustment.
Conversely, geopolitical risks, including tensions in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and stricter sanctions enforcement on Iran and Venezuela, pose upward pressures on prices, potentially adding $2.4/b to the annual average. Libya’s sustained production levels also remain a key variable in supply forecasts.
While Brent prices are expected to stabilize broadly within the $70-80/b range in 2025, this marks a departure from the $75-85/b range that defined the past two years, reflecting evolving dynamics in global oil markets.
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