Azerbaijan, Baku, Jan. 16 / Trend , E.Tariverdiyeva /
The gas war with Russia would not lead to resignation of the Ukrainian government, as its initiators, in spite of the adopted Law On impeachment, do not have enough support in parliament. However, the crisis could serve as a catalyst for early elections.
"I do not think that anyone can now apply for the post of prime minister, and impeachment is just a way of social and political pressure on Yushchenko, that he will refuse a second term," Ukrainian political analyst Viktor Nebojenko belives.
The Party of Regions has recently made an initiative to dismiss the first Tymoshenko's government and then President Yushchenko. The party does not have a majority in the Supreme Rada. The Communist Party of Ukraine supported the initiative. On Jan. 15, parliament adopted the Law On temporary investigative commissions, special temporary commission and temporary special commissions of the Supreme Rada, which defines the impeachment procedure of the president.
Gas conflict with Russia will not lead to the resignation of the Government, as the majority in parliament do not support this initiative at the moment. The opposition - the Communists and Party of Regions - have no majority in parliament to dismiss the government of Tymoshenko, said Russian expert on CIS Vladimir Jarihin. "As for the impeachment, its mechanism has not been developed completely in Ukraine, i.e.. one can only state about it, but cannot declare, Deputy Director of Institute of CIS countries Jarihin said to Trend . This is only a talk within the political struggle framework, Jarihin said.
Ukrainian expert Nebojenko agrees with this position. According to him, the initiatives of expressing distrust to government is made by the Party of Regions, which attempts to remove attention from the Ukrainian-Russian gas conflict to the critics of Tymoshenko. "But it is now difficult to criticize her even formally because she parliamentary majority and the budget is in her hands," Nebojenko, head of sociological service of Ukrainian Barometer, said.
According to him, the greater the conflicts, the more Tymoshenko feels herself as fish in water. "I do not feel that someone can now pretend for the post of Prime Minister," said Nebojenko. The same thing can be said also about impeachment, the expert said. Most likely the requirement of impeachment is the method of social and political pressure on Yushchenko so that he would give up the second term, he said.According to experts, however the gas crisis can provoke pre-term elections in February - March of this year.
Sharp political fight will burn because of the change of power, moreover already in a new format, said the Ukrainian expert Andrey Ermolaev. "There are real possibilities of the resignation of government, this is possible in February," Ermolaev, president of the center for social studies Sofia, told Trend . According to him, this will seriously strike the reputation of the power. "For February I forecast an increase in the critical moods, also amongst the deputies even from present participants in the coalition," said Ermolaev.
Everything brings to the presidential elections and possible pre-term parliamentary elections - this will be exactly the moment of truth, but not the resignation of government through distrust, since for this the initiators of change of power will not collect voice, said Jarihin.
Change of power in Ukraine is always possible, said Russian expert Grgigoriy Trofimchuk, but in this case, this is entirely uninteresting due to those happening. "The change of government can occur not only in Ukraine, but also in the countries of East Europe. This global and total repartition of energy market will involve not only the change of governments, but also the change of ideology," Trofimchuk, president of the strategic development modeling center, told Trend .
And this will be no longer Communist ideology, and far from market- democratic, but something entirely different, he said.
R.Agayev ( Moscow) and Z.Novosvitski ( Kiev) contributed in the article.
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