BAKU, Azerbaijan, February 23. Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan joining forces in a gas union could temporarily fill Central Asia's supply gap and keep a steady flow of pipeline gas to China, the World Bank said in its research, Trend reports.
The WB analysts reminded that, in November 2022, Russia put forward a proposal for a three-way gas union involving Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, aiming to boost Russian gas shipments to both Central Asian countries and China. Initially, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan rejected the idea, but following the 2022/23 winter energy crisis and Russia's willingness to drop demands for taking over the gas transmission networks in both nations, they signed separate cooperation roadmaps with Gazprom in January 2023. These roadmaps aim to explore the technical possibilities of supplying Russian gas to Central Asia and China as part of a gas union.
By June 2023, Uzbekistan entered a two-year short-term contract with Gazprom for the delivery of up to 2.8 bcm annually. According to the reports, the first deliveries under this regional scheme reportedly began in October 2023, following some technical upgrades to the Central Asia-Central pipeline system in 3Q2023, enabling reverse flows from Russia to Central Asia. The medium-term plans envision delivering up to 10 bcm of Russian gas annually to Central Asia, with approximately 4-6 bcm potentially being reexported to China by 2025. This seems feasible, although additional infrastructure upgrades might be necessary to accommodate the increased flows, the WB analysts say.
Modeling results indicate that introducing an additional 10 bcm of Russian gas to the region by 2025 would help maintain stable export levels from Central Asia to China and support growing domestic consumption within the region from 2023 to 2025, the experts note, adding that, without a gas union, the base case suggests a contraction in Central Asia's production and export levels between 2023 and 2025. Net Zero scenarios offer the best energy security outcome for Central Asia, ensuring higher self-sufficiency compared to fossil fuel–based scenarios.
