BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 16. Global oil supply experienced a decline of 200 kb/d in April, dropping to 102 mb/d, Trend reports.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), this decrease was attributed to maintenance issues affecting Canadian output and Russia implementing some of its promised OPEC+ production cuts for the second quarter of 2024. However, the overall decline was mitigated by seasonally higher biofuels production.
In detail, OPEC+ oil output saw a month-on-month decrease of 90 kb/d, while supply from non-OPEC+ sources declined by 110 kb/d. This indicates much more moderate gains in the second quarter of 2024 compared to previous forecasts. The projected growth of 590 kb/d in the second quarter will be primarily driven by non-OPEC+ countries. However, significant outages in Brazil and logistical challenges in the United States have led to a downward adjustment of 390 kb/d in global supply projections for the quarter compared to the previous month's report.
Further adjustments for the remainder of the year have resulted in an annual average downward revision of 160 kb/d to world supply. Global growth for this year is now forecasted to average 580 kb/d, reaching a record high of 102.7 mb/d. Non-OPEC+ output is expected to rise by 1.4 mb/d, while OPEC+ production is anticipated to decrease by 840 kb/d, assuming the continuation of existing voluntary cuts.
Looking ahead to 2025, global gains are projected at 1.8 mb/d, with supply reaching a fresh high of 104.5 mb/d. For the third consecutive year, non-OPEC+ countries are expected to lead gains, adding 1.4 mb/d in 2025. However, if the voluntary OPEC+ cuts, which were extended and deepened from the first quarter of 2024, remain in place, the alliance's output could rise by a relatively modest 330 kb/d.
