BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 13. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised upward its forecast for OPEC+ crude oil production for 2025 and 2026, as the group moves to unwind production cuts faster than planned, Trend reports.
According to the latest outlook, OPEC+ output is now expected to average 43.7 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025, up from the previous forecast of 43.2 million b/d — a 1% increase. For 2026, production is projected at 44.2 million b/d, compared to the earlier estimate of 43.8 million b/d, representing a 0.9% upward revision.
The adjustment follows the August 3 decision by OPEC+ members to accelerate the rollback of the 2.2 million b/d production cuts announced in November 2023. Initially scheduled to be fully unwound by September 2026, these cuts will now be completely reversed by September 2025 — two years ahead of schedule.
EIA expects this surge in output to contribute significantly to global oil inventory builds over the next two years. Global liquid fuels production is forecast to rise by an average of 2.0 million b/d in the second half of 2025 (2H25) compared with the first half, with OPEC+ accounting for half of this increase. Non-OPEC producers, led by the United States, Brazil, Norway, Canada, and Guyana, will provide the other half.
At the same time, global liquid fuels demand in 2H25 is projected to grow by 1.6 million b/d from the first half of the year, meaning inventories will expand at an even faster pace — from 1.4 million b/d in 1H25 to 1.9 million b/d in 2H25, and 2.3 million b/d in the first quarter of 2026.
EIA warns that this sustained inventory growth will put significant downward pressure on oil prices in the months ahead.
