BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 4. Spot prices for natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Europe and Asia declined slightly in June 2026, while market volatility remained moderate.
The figures were reported in the monthly report of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).
According to the report, the signing of a memorandum on ending the conflict in the Middle East on June 18 and expectations that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen eased concerns over potential supply disruptions, putting downward pressure on gas prices. At the same time, warmer-than-usual weather in key consumer regions increased demand for gas used in cooling, limiting a sharper decline in prices.
GECF said forecasts for above-average temperatures during the summer months are expected to continue supporting spot prices. However, renewed tensions in the Middle East could trigger upward pressure on gas markets.
In Europe, the average spot gas price at the TTF hub declined 7% in June to $15.12 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), while prices at the UK NBP hub fell 8% to $14.59/MMBtu. Despite the monthly decline, both benchmarks remained higher than a year earlier, increasing 23% and 24%, respectively.
During the month, TTF prices fell to a low of $13.43/MMBtu, while NBP prices declined to $12.93/MMBtu. The report noted that optimism over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz pushed European prices lower, while hot weather supported gas demand and limited the decline.
In January-June 2026, the average TTF price stood at $14.68/MMBtu, while the NBP average was $14.35/MMBtu, representing year-on-year increases of 10% and 9%, respectively.
In Asia, spot LNG prices for Northeast Asia (NEA) averaged $17.23/MMBtu in June. The price was 4% lower month-on-month but remained 33% higher year-on-year.
GECF said Asian prices also declined as risks related to the Strait of Hormuz eased. At the same time, high storage levels reduced buyer activity, although forecasts for hotter weather in coming months prompted some buyers to return to the spot market.
During January-June, the average NEA spot LNG price was $15.65/MMBtu, up 20% year-on-year.
The report also noted that prices under oil-indexed LNG contracts increased in June. The average price under Oil-Indexed I rose 8% month-on-month, Oil-Indexed II increased 12%, and Oil-Indexed III for Europe gained 9%.
As of July 6, the average 12-month futures price for the period from August 2026 to July 2027 was projected at $13.46/MMBtu for TTF, $13.21/MMBtu for NBP, and $14.05/MMBtu for Asia's JKM benchmark.
These levels were approximately 12% lower than GECF's previous forecasts included in its June report.
The average futures price for the U.S. Henry Hub was expected to stand at $3.32/MMBtu.
According to the forum's forecast, the price spread between JKM and TTF is expected to narrow to $1.30/MMBtu in August, and fall below $1/MMBtu in the fourth quarter of the year.
In June, the spot price of Brent crude oil declined 24% month-on-month to an average of $86.25 per barrel. However, the price remained 18% higher year-on-year.
During the same period, the average price of European API2 coal increased 18% to $129.85 per tonne, while China's Qinhuangdao coal price rose 3% to $136.06 per tonne.
The average price of carbon emission allowances in the European Union stood at €79.06 per tonne of CO₂ in June, up 4% month-on-month and 8% year-on-year.
GECF said TTF prices have recently approached a range that is economically favorable for switching from coal to gas. However, natural gas remains a relatively more expensive fuel than coal for electricity generation.
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) is an intergovernmental organization representing 20 major gas-exporting countries, including 12 members and eight observer states. Azerbaijan holds observer status at the forum.
The GECF monthly gas market report covers global economic trends, gas consumption and production, pipeline and LNG trade, gas storage levels, and short-term developments in energy prices.
