TASHKENT, Uzbekistan, March 23. The Dutch banking conglomerate ING expects the Uzbek soum to remain broadly stable in the near term, although external factors may limit its strengthening potential, Trend reports via ING.
According to information, the exchange rate environment is no longer providing the same disinflationary support as in 2025. After appreciating by around 7% last year, the Uzbek soum has remained largely flat since early March, reducing the positive impact of the currency on inflation dynamics.
Analysts note that the recent correction in global gold prices has also affected the outlook. Gold prices declined by about 5% after rising by 65% in 2025 and a further 21% in January-February 2026.
ING said Uzbekistan may continue to support the currency through gold exports, as the country could increase sales from around 85 metric tons in 2025 toward its estimated capacity of 90-100 metric tons per year.
At the same time, the bank warns that limited growth in gold prices and the country’s persistent current account and fiscal deficits may constrain the long-term appreciation potential of the Uzbek soum.
According to ING, rising global food and energy prices, along with strong domestic demand, continue to pose inflation risks, which may require Uzbekistan to maintain relatively tight monetary conditions for longer than previously expected.