DUSHANBE, Tajikistan, March 25. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) projects Tajikistan’s GDP growth to reach 8.1% year-on-year in 2026, Trend reports via the EDB.
According to the bank, economic expansion will be supported by continued positive trends in consumption and investment, driven in part by strong export revenues. Favorable global prices for Tajikistan’s key export commodities, particularly gold, are expected to sustain high foreign trade earnings.
The EDB noted that at the beginning of 2026 the country’s economy continues to demonstrate strong growth, supported by robust consumer and investment demand. In January 2026, retail trade turnover increased by 25.5% year-on-year, while the volume of paid services rose by 29.3% year-on-year, compared to growth rates of 14.4% and 10.9%, respectively, recorded in 2025.
Household consumption is being supported by rising incomes. Real average wages grew by 15.8% in 2025, partly due to salary increases in the public sector. In addition, remittance inflows to Tajikistan rose by about 50% year-on-year in January–September 2025, amid the strengthening of the Russian ruble and higher wages in Russia.
Investment activity also remains strong. Capital investment increased by 39.3% year-over-year in January 2026, compared to 23% growth in 2025. Significant funds are being directed to the energy sector, primarily within the framework of state development programs, as well as to industry, including mining, metals production, textiles, and the food sector.
Overall, the EDB anticipates that these elements will sustain elevated economic growth trajectories in Tajikistan up to 2026.