BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 26. Tajik President Emomali Rahmon will pay a state visit to Uzbekistan on March 26–27, where he is set to meet President Shavkat Mirziyoyev for the first session of a new Supreme Interstate Council and sign a package of agreements expected to elevate bilateral ties to a full-fledged alliance.
The visit marks a significant step in the evolution of relations. Since signing a Treaty on Allied Relations in April 2024 in Dushanbe - which entered into force in March 2025 - the two sides have resolved nearly all outstanding border issues. A key milestone came in March 2025, when the leaders of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan signed a trilateral agreement in Khujand defining the junction point of their borders, effectively closing the last disputed segments.
Economic cooperation remains the main driver. Bilateral trade reached $718.3 million in 2025, up 22.5% year-on-year, according to Tajik data. Broader estimates put the figure closer to $912 million - a 3.8-fold increase since 2017. Growth has accelerated further in early 2026, with trade up 81.5% in January.
The structure of trade highlights complementarity: Uzbekistan exports machinery, fertilizers and petroleum products, while Tajikistan mainly supplies coal - nearly all of its export volume in 2025 went to Uzbekistan. Investment ties are also expanding. As of mid-2025, 357 enterprises with Tajik capital were operating in Uzbekistan, up by roughly one-third from a year earlier. Both governments have set a target of boosting trade to $2 billion in the coming years.
Energy - once a source of friction - is increasingly an area of alignment. The Rogun hydropower plant, previously a point of concern for Tashkent over water flows, is now seen as a foundation for cooperation. Tajikistan is already exporting electricity from the plant to Uzbekistan at around 3.4 cents per kWh, with volumes expected to rise as new capacity comes online. For Uzbekistan, this helps cover peak summer demand with relatively green energy; for Tajikistan, it provides a stable export market and financing stream.
The agenda also includes transport connectivity, industrial cooperation and cultural exchanges. In 2025, Uzbekistan hosted nearly 2.78 million visitors from Tajikistan, underscoring the scale of cross-border ties.
Regionally, the visit comes amid accelerating Central Asian integration, with Tashkent and Dushanbe positioning their relationship as a model of bilateral alliance-building. At the same time, structural differences remain: Tajikistan’s economy relies heavily on hydropower and remittances, while Uzbekistan is driven by gas resources and domestic reforms.
Around 10–15 agreements are expected to be signed, alongside concrete steps to expand trade and investment. The launch of the Supreme Interstate Council is intended to institutionalize high-level engagement, turning periodic meetings into a standing coordination mechanism.
Whether the two countries can reach their $2 billion trade target within the next few years - and significantly advance joint energy projects - will depend on implementation. If momentum holds, the visit could emerge as a practical model for deeper regional cooperation in Central Asia, with its longer-term impact shaped by the pace of follow-through.