TASHKENT, Uzbekistan, March 28. ING Group, based in the Netherlands, anticipates that the Central Bank of Uzbekistan will initiate a gradual easing cycle, with a slow decline in the policy rate projected through 2027, Trend reports.
According to ING’s latest forecast, Uzbekistan’s policy rate is expected to remain at 14% during the first half of 2026, before being reduced to 13% in the third quarter, where it is expected to hold through the end of the year.
In 2027, the rate is forecasted to stay at 13% during the first half of the year, before gradually decreasing to 12.5% in the third and fourth quarters, signaling a gradual normalization of monetary policy rather than a rapid easing process.
Previously, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan lowered the policy rate to 13.5% in July 2024, marking the first reduction below 14% in several years. However, the rate was subsequently raised back to 14% in March 2025, where it remains.
The regulator has consistently stated that it will maintain a restrictive monetary stance until inflation shows a sustained decline toward its 5% target.