TASHKENT, Uzbekistan, April 6. The Netherlands-based ING Group says Uzbekistan remains relatively resilient to Middle East tensions, largely supported by policy-managed gold exports, Trend reports.
According to ING, rising oil prices pose a risk to the balance of payments, as every additional $10 per barrel increases annual energy import costs by about $550 million (0.4% of GDP).
However, the company analysts note that this impact is more than offset by gold exports, where a $1,000 per ounce increase in prices adds roughly $4 billion (2.7% of GDP) to export revenues.
In 2025, Uzbekistan sold about 85 tons of gold, equivalent to around 85% of its annual production capacity, which helped support the national currency. The Uzbek soum appreciated by 7.4% over the year.
At the same time, ING notes that the discretionary nature of gold sales, along with persistent twin deficits and still elevated inflation, limits the potential for sustained foreign exchange appreciation.