BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 10
By Leman Zeynalova - Trend:
Without fossil fuels, many countries would not have been able to develop and industrialise. Now more countries such as China and India are developing at a very fast rate and their energy needs are soaring.
The trouble is that when we burn fossil fuels to make electricity, run our cars and for many other uses the carbon is released back into the atmosphere where it contributes to the greenhouse effect. These “greenhouse gases” such as carbon dioxide add to an invisible blanket around the earth which traps more of the sun’s heat. This makes the temperature of the world rise - what we call “global warming”.
As fossils fuels become more expensive and harder to find, renewable energy will become cheaper as technology improves and the equipment is made on a larger scale.
Renewables energy consumption grew strongly in 2019, contributing its largest increase in energy terms (3.2 EJ) on record. This accounted for over 40 percent of the global growth in primary energy last year, which is larger than any other fuel. As a result, renewables increased its share in the energy mix from 4.5 percent in 2018 to 5 percent. By energy source, wind generation provided the largest contribution to growth (1.4 EJ) followed closely by solar (1.2 EJ). Other sources of renewable electricity (such as biomass and geothermal) grew by 0.3 EJ, while biofuels consumption increased by 0.2 EJ, or 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. China’s use of renewables grew by more than any other country, although its increase of 0.8 EJ was below the strong rate of growth seen in 2017 and 2018 (1.2 EJ both years). Solar provided half of China’s growth, followed by wind (around 40 percent). The US (0.3 EJ) and Japan (0.2 EJ) were the next largest individual contributors to growth.
Renewables generated more electricity than fossil fuels in Europe for the first time in 2020.
Fossil fuel-powered energy fell to 37 percent whereas renewable sources rose to 38 percent in 2020. This means clean energy has overtaken sources like gas and coal in the EU.
Hydrogen is taking its niche is the global energy mix
Wood Mackenzie notes that the last year has seen a decisive pivot towards decarbonisation globally which is extremely positive for zero-carbon technologies. Recent announcements of net-zero targets from China, Japan, South Korea and Canada, along with the US recommitting to the Paris Agreement, show policy momentum to tackle global warming is now unstoppable.
Green hydrogen is a key beneficiary, with this pivot pushing it to the fore ahead of other methods for producing the gas. In fact, electrolysis-based low-carbon production now makes up 67% of the overall pipeline for hydrogen.
The EU’s Green Recovery Package announced last year specifically earmarked 150 billion euros for green hydrogen. This financial commitment was accompanied by specific targets for electrolyser capacity – 6 GW in the first phase between 2020 and 2024, with 40 GW to be installed by the end of the second phase in 2030.
As a direct result Europe is currently driving growth, representing 79% of the overall low-carbon hydrogen pipeline. However, with 17 countries (including Japan, South Korea and Canada) having announced a hydrogen strategy, roadmap or vision and the global trend towards net-zero targets clear, that dominance is likely to be temporary.
After a pandemic-related dip in Q2 and Q3 2020, investment in low-carbon hydrogen is once again on the up. At least US$4.5 billion was invested in the hydrogen market in the first quarter of 2021 alone, with 55 projects announced.
Progress of renewable electricity replacing fossil fuels
Oil is the first fossil fuel to be outcompeted in electricity generation because it has the highest price and value of the three main fossil fuels. As a liquid it is the easiest of the three to store and transport. It has a relatively high energy density in the form where it is easily stored and handled.
Oil is now mainly used in the transport sector after refining crude oil into different fuel qualities.
The important observation is that renewable electricity from new solar and wind power plants is now cheaper per unit energy than crude oil. This comparison shows that the replacement of oil by renewable electricity is clearly possible. As a result, we see a rapid transition in the automotive industry. Electric road vehicles are increasing, the first electric ferries are in use and even some small airplanes are using electricity instead of oil based fuels. In the heating sector fuel oil is replaced by electricity often using energy efficient heat pumps.
Making the world independent of limited fossil fuels will be realised only when renewable energy is replacing fossil fuels for electricity generation and for other purposes. The comparisons of energy prices of renewable electricity and the different fossil fuels are not the only factor that decides the success of this second replacement.
Electricity can outcompete oil for heating at a higher price as electric heating may be achieved by heat-pumps providing 2-5 energy units of heat per unit electricity, while producing heat by burning oil will produce just a little less than one unit heat per unit oil energy.
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Follow the author on Twitter: @Lyaman_Zeyn
