BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 26. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is inflicting heavy damage on the region’s energy infrastructure, triggering severe disruptions in global oil and gas supplies. According to Rystad Energy, repair and restoration costs for affected facilities could already reach $25 billion, with numbers expected to rise as assessments continue, Trend reports.
The damage spans liquefied natural gas (LNG) trains, refineries, fuel terminals, and critical gas-to-liquids plants. Spending is expected to be driven primarily by engineering and construction, followed by equipment and materials.
A particularly hard-hit site is Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, where LNG trains S4 and S6 were destroyed, forcing the operator to declare force majeure and cutting capacity by 17%, or roughly 12.8 million tonnes per year. “Capital alone will not be sufficient to restore the facility,” Rystad Energy analysts said, noting that a full recovery could take up to five years. The delay is largely due to the scarcity of large-frame gas turbines required for LNG refrigeration compressors, which are produced by only three manufacturers worldwide—all of which are facing production backlogs of two to four years.
The Gulf’s recovery will hinge less on finances and more on structural and logistical constraints. While some facilities may return online within months, others could remain offline for years. Iran’s South Pars offshore field and Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility are of particular concern. Analysts say Ras Laffan faces slow recovery due to long lead times for critical equipment, while Iran’s exclusion from Western supply chains means it must rely on domestic and Chinese contractors—a technically feasible but slower and more costly approach.
Neighboring Bahrain also faces a distinct disruption scenario. The BAPCO Sitra Refinery was struck twice, damaging two crude distillation units and a tank farm, and prompting a force majeure declaration. “The destruction of a newly commissioned CDU block just months after first production has eliminated novel processing capacity, delaying revenue intended to support recent investment,” analysts said. The refinery had just completed a $7 billion modernization program, and restoring the units will likely require international contractors to return under higher conflict-inflated costs and uncertain war-risk insurance.
Other Gulf states, including the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, experienced moderate-to-minor disruptions. Across the region, the key factor shaping recovery is the density and capability of the local engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) ecosystem surrounding each asset. Saudi Aramco’s swift restart at Ras Tanura, where maintenance teams were already onsite for a scheduled turnaround, illustrates the advantage of deep domestic capacity.
Recovery in the Gulf will depend on execution speed and the timing of capital deployment. Operators are expected to prioritize existing fields over new projects, creating strong demand for EPC contractors and OEMs with regional experience and existing agreements with national oil companies. Near-term work will focus on inspection, engineering, and site preparation, followed by equipment replacement and construction as procurement constraints ease. In Iran, ongoing sanctions limit access to Western contractors and technology, leaving domestic and East Asian players to lead most reconstruction efforts.