BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 29. The refinancing rate in Tajikistan is expected to remain at moderate levels in the medium term, with the indicator projected at 7.2% in 2026 and gradually increasing to 8% by 2028.
This is stated in the Eurasian Development Bank’s latest macroeconomic outlook.
"The expected moderate increase in the refinancing rate will help limit the risk of inflation exceeding the upper boundary of the target range, while inflation is expected to remain within the National Bank of Tajikistan’s target corridor of 5±2% throughout the forecast period," the document said.
According to the forecast, the average annual refinancing rate is expected to decrease to 7.2% in 2026 from 8.2% in 2025 and 9.3% in 2024. The rate is projected to rise to 7.5% in 2027 and 8% in 2028.
The EDB expects Tajikistan’s economy to maintain high growth rates, with GDP growth projected at above 8% in 2026. The bank noted that strong consumer and investment activity, supported by favourable external economic conditions, will remain key factors supporting expansion.
The report noted that economic activity remains broad-based. Real GDP increased by 8% year-on-year in January–March 2026, following growth of 8.4% in 2025.
Growth was supported by major sectors of the economy. Industrial output increased by 14% year-on-year, agricultural production expanded by 8%, wholesale and retail trade grew by 22.1%, while freight turnover in the transport sector increased by 19.1%.
The EDB noted that maintaining a balanced refinancing rate alongside stable inflation dynamics could support continued economic activity while preserving price stability. The gradual adjustment of monetary conditions may help balance strong domestic demand with inflation control objectives.
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) is maintaining the energy sector as a key priority of its investment strategy in Central Asia for 2026–2027, while expanding its focus on the water-food-energy nexus, a source from the Bank’s Analytical Department told Trend in an exclusive interview.
According to the source, the Bank does not plan a major shift in investment priorities under its strategy through 2031. The EDB continues to focus on renewable energy development, expansion of power grids and storage systems, modernisation of existing capacities, as well as green industrialisation as a driver of sustainable growth in the region. The Bank also highlighted Central Asia’s strategic role in the energy transition, noting both existing challenges and opportunities for further investment and cooperation.
The projected trajectory of Tajikistan’s refinancing rate reflects an approach aimed at maintaining a balance between supporting economic growth and preserving price stability. The expected moderate increase in the rate after 2026 may allow monetary authorities to respond to inflation risks while keeping financial conditions supportive for investment and economic activity. With GDP growth remaining above 8% and key sectors demonstrating strong expansion, maintaining a stable monetary environment could contribute to sustainable growth, although the effectiveness of policy measures will depend on inflation dynamics, external conditions and domestic demand trends.
