BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 29. The IMF expects Turkmenistan’s current account surplus to narrow to about 1.1% of GDP in 2026.
This was stated in a concluding statement issued by an IMF mission following a visit to Ashgabat.
"The current account surplus narrowed significantly, from 4.7 percent of GDP in 2024 to 1.7 percent in 2025," the statement added.
The IMF attributed the trend to rising construction-related imports, lower hydrocarbon prices, and limited capacity to fully capitalize on export opportunities.
"The current account surplus is projected to narrow further as construction-related imports rise and hydrocarbon exports benefit only partially from higher oil prices because of limited capacity," the statement said.
On fiscal developments, the IMF said the central government balance moved into a small surplus in 2025.
However, the Fund expects fiscal conditions to weaken over the medium term due to declining hydrocarbon revenues.
"Over the medium term the external position is expected to deteriorate, as hydrocarbon prices decline," the statement added.
The IMF also recommended reorienting fiscal policy toward higher-quality public spending, including health, education, infrastructure, and improved public investment management, alongside gradual subsidy reform and productivity-aligned wage policy.
In order to address these issues, the IMF recommends that Turkmenistan reorient fiscal policy toward expanding investment in human and physical capital, improving public financial management, reforming state-owned enterprises, gradually reducing generalized subsidies, and shifting away from directed lending toward market-based credit allocation, while strengthening the central bank’s focus on price and financial stability.
Given this scenario, Turkmenistan’s 2026 socio-economic and investment policy framework can be viewed in the context of growing external uncertainty and anticipated price volatility highlighted in the IMF’s latest assessment. The Fund points to the need to strengthen public financial management, including broader fiscal reporting, medium-term budgeting, and reform of state-owned enterprises, as well as reducing directed lending by the Central Bank.
Notably, these very directions are already embedded in Turkmenistan’s previously adopted medium-term development and investment programs, suggesting that policy planning has been structured in anticipation of potential macroeconomic pressures rather than as a reactive response. In this sense, the national strategy reflects an attempt to pre-emptively address the same vulnerabilities identified by the IMF, particularly in relation to fiscal transparency, diversification of the economic base, and modernization of financial governance mechanisms.
Against this backdrop, the current policy architecture can be interpreted as an effort to internalize anticipated sources of economic turbulence and align state planning with long-term stability objectives, where investment expansion and institutional modernization are positioned as core instruments for mitigating structural risks outlined in the IMF outlook.
Meanwhile, in an exclusive interview with Trend, Anna Bordon said that, the IMF will continue close cooperation with Turkmenistan in 2026, focusing on maintaining macroeconomic stability and supporting structural reforms with targeted technical assistance and capacity development.
"Key priorities include supporting medium-term and program-based budgeting, strengthening fiscal reporting and planning, and enhancing governance and statistical capacity. These efforts aim to help translate hydrocarbon wealth into more diversified, resilient, and inclusive economic growth over the medium term," Bordon added.
