BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 11. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its coal export forecast for 2024 upward, citing strong performance in the first half of the year despite a recent drop in U.S. metallurgical coal exports, Trend reports.
According to the EIA’s latest outlook, total U.S. coal exports are now expected to reach 105 million short tons (MMst) in 2024, marking a 5% increase from 2023.
The upward revision follows robust coal export figures during the first half of 2024, driven largely by a surge in demand from key markets, including India, where steel production is on the rise. The EIA raised its forecast for metallurgical coal exports by 6%, from 50 MMst to 53 MMst, for 2024. However, exports are expected to level off in 2025, remaining steady at 52 MMst, as global demand for steel, particularly from China, poses a potential risk to the forecast.
In July, U.S. metallurgical coal exports dropped by 26%, following a sharp 34% increase in June, which brought total U.S. exports to 10 MMst. The July decline is seen as temporary and likely reflects a return to normal shipping volumes after a June spike caused by the reopening of the Port of Baltimore, which had been closed following the Key Bridge collapse.
Meanwhile, thermal coal exports—used primarily for power generation—rose by 7% in July. Despite this growth, the EIA has kept its forecast for thermal coal exports mostly unchanged, with 53 MMst expected in 2024 and 52 MMst in 2025. The steady outlook for thermal coal comes amid stagnant global coal-fired power generation, which is not projected to see significant changes over the next year.
The EIA’s overall outlook for U.S. coal exports remains cautiously optimistic, with total exports expected to rise to 105 MMst in 2024. However, the agency warns that a slowdown in global demand, particularly for steel in China, could present downside risks to the forecast. As global markets continue to adjust to shifting energy dynamics, U.S. coal remains a key component in both metallurgical and thermal applications, with India emerging as a critical growth market for U.S. exports.
