TASHKENT, Uzbekistan, March 11. International financial institutions (IFIs) forecast that Uzbekistan's real GDP growth will remain robust in 2026, with projections ranging from 6.0% to 6.7%, reflecting sustained domestic demand, active investment activity, and ongoing structural reforms, Trend reports via the IFIs.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Uzbekistan’s economy is expected to grow by 6.0% in 2026, slightly above its earlier projection of 5.8%. The IMF maintains that tight monetary policy and structural adjustments will help preserve macroeconomic stability amid inflationary pressures linked to administered energy price increases. At the same time, the Fund highlights fiscal challenges, including weaker-than-expected VAT revenues and tax compliance gaps, which could weigh on budget performance.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) presents a more optimistic outlook, projecting 6.5% growth in 2026, with the forecast revised upward by 0.5 percentage points compared to its previous estimate. The EBRD attributes the upgrade to stronger-than-anticipated investment dynamics and continued implementation of structural reforms. However, the bank cautions that external risks remain, particularly volatility in global commodity prices and potential softening of external demand.
Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts GDP growth of 6.7% in 2026, maintaining its earlier projection. The ADB notes that sustained public capital expenditure, steady performance in industry, agriculture, and services, and ongoing infrastructure modernization will underpin economic expansion. Inflation is projected to ease to around 7.0% in 2026, supported by prudent monetary policy and more stable commodity prices.
Overall, while projections differ slightly, all three institutions converge on the assessment that Uzbekistan will sustain robust growth above 6% in 2026. The variation in forecasts reflects differing assumptions regarding inflation dynamics, fiscal adjustments, external demand conditions, and the pace of structural reforms. The consensus view suggests that domestic consumption and investment will remain the primary growth drivers, while macroeconomic management and reform implementation will be critical to maintaining stability and mitigating external vulnerabilities.