BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 2
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Yet-to-find (YTF) resources will play a promising role in satisfying the substantial rising demand for natural gas over period till 2050, Trend reports with reference to the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).
“YTF resources will contribute to around 30 percent of total production by 2050. It implies that the current level of proven reserves is not adequate to furnish rising demand, and consequently, there is a considerable need to lead projects on discovery and exploration. Not only is investment in discovery projects needed, but also the discovered and YTF resources need to be explored and come into production over the medium-term otherwise there will be a lack of supply and feed gas for LNG infrastructure. This Outlook forecasts that around 80 percent of production in 2050 will be sourced from new projects, and this huge share highlights the importance of investment in upstream and all aspects of the supply chain for natural gas,” reads a GECF report.
Almost all the GECF Member countries (excluding observers) will either increase or maintain the level of their annual production by 2050. In line with our previous forecast, this Outlook expects Russia, Iran, Qatar and Nigeria to make the largest contribution to the total GECF gas production expansion accounting for around 80 percent of total GECF incremental value over the outlook period.
The latest modelling results reflected in this Outlook forecast that total gas production from the current GECF members will rise by 47.5 percent, reaching approximately 2,640 bcm by 2050. This translates to a 1.3 percent average annual growth rate over the period between 2019 and 2050. The GECF share in global gas production will reduce slightly through to the mid-2030s due to increases from non-GECF producers, including the US and Australia. Over the longer term, maintaining production capacity in the GECF countries will enable the GECF to keep its share of global gas production at more than 44.7 percent by 2050.
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