BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 4. The Middle East is poised to play an increasingly central role in global natural gas production, with a projected increase of 461 billion cubic metres (bcm) through 2050, Trend reports with reference to the GECF outlook.
The region is expected to demonstrate robust growth across all three decades of the forecast period, driven by substantial investments and ambitious expansion plans in five key countries: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iraq, and Iran.
Qatar is set to remain the regional leader, with production projected to climb to 300 bcm by mid-century — a 77% increase from 2023 levels. The country’s growth will be anchored by its massive North Field expansion projects. In 2023 alone, Qatar accounted for 45% of the Middle East's upstream gas investment, spending $9.6 billion. The North Field East and North Field South expansions are expected to add over 70 bcm of annual capacity.
Saudi Arabia is on track to nearly double its gas output, reaching 160 bcm by 2050. The kingdom plans to increase production by 60% from 2021 levels by 2030, supported by investments exceeding $100 billion in the Jafurah field. The development of both conventional assets — such as Ghawar Haradh and Hawiyah — and unconventional gas resources will be central to this effort. The Jafurah shale gas project, expected to begin production in 2025, is projected to contribute around 26 bcm annually at its peak in the 2030s.
The UAE also aims to nearly double its gas production, surpassing 90 bcm by 2050. Growth will be driven by a mix of sour gas developments — including Hail & Ghasha and the Dalma Gas project — and unconventional resource development. The Ruwais-Diyab field, which began production in 2020, marks the start of a broader push to unlock the country’s estimated 13 trillion cubic metres (tcm) of unconventional gas.
Iraq is emerging as one of the region’s most promising gas producers, with output expected to exceed 60 bcm by 2050. Key developments such as Akkas, Khor Mor, Mansuriyah, Nahr bin Umar, and Zubair are set to come online by 2030. Iraq is also accelerating its efforts to capture associated gas, with initiatives like the Gas Growth Integrated Project targeting 20 bcm of output from associated gas by 2040.
Iran, leveraging one of the world’s largest gas reserves, is projected to reach approximately 400 bcm in production by 2050. The country’s vast resource base and continued domestic development will underpin its growing role in the region’s gas output.
Together, these developments signal the Middle East's transformation into a major global gas production powerhouse, contributing significantly to the world’s future energy supply.
