ASTANA, Kazakhstan, March 10. The international analytical group Argus Media has published a forecast indicating that the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) remains the main route for oil exports from Kazakhstan, in spite of testing alternative routes, Trend reports via Argus Media.
The information indicates that from 2024 the shareholders of the Kashagan field have started to actively test alternative transportation routes due to the growth of production at large fields. Analysts argue that the capacity of the CPC may prove insufficient as output from major Kazakhstani fields such as Kashagan and Tengiz grows.
At the same time, improving the profitability of oil refining in Kazakhstan could encourage the attraction of raw materials from large fields. However, the capacity utilization of local oil refineries (refining plants) is close to maximum, limiting the potential for processing.
“Key parameters for Kazakhstan's oil exports: Oil transportation via Russia amounts to 66.4 million tons per year (up to 95 percent of the total export volume); The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) accounts for 80 percent of Kazakhstan's total oil exports; The excess capacity of all pipelines from Kazakhstan is 27-28 million tons per year; The country is facing a shortage of refining capacity, while low demand from oil companies limits growth potential,” reported Argus Media.
According to Argus Media, key factors for 2025 include: A 25 percent increase in production at Tengiz, leading to an increase in output to 34.7 million tons per year; KMG (KazMunayGas) has begun regular oil deliveries from Kashagan through the BTC pipeline; Oil companies are interested in supplying Kebco oil to Germany, although tanker deliveries remain limited; KMG is considering investments in an oil refinery in Burgas, Bulgaria.
Kazakhstan’s oil exports continue to face high transportation costs and competition from cheap Russian oil, raising questions about improving the situation in the oil industry.
Argus (formerly known as Petroleum Argus Ltd) is an independent provider of pricing information, consulting services, conferences, market data, and business analytics for global markets of oil, natural gas, electricity, emissions, biofuels, biomass, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), metals, chemicals, fertilizers, agriculture, and coal.
