BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 12. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has adjusted its forecast for U.S. coal exports, predicting a decline to 97 million short tons (MMst) in 2025, down from 102 MMst in the February report, Trend reports.
The revision reflects several emerging challenges for U.S. coal exporters, including a strong U.S. dollar, weaker international coal prices, and a 15% tariff on U.S. coal imports imposed by China in February. Additionally, increased coal production and exports from Australia are expected to further pressure U.S. coal shipments.
Despite these obstacles, the EIA forecasts a slight recovery in exports, with a rise to 99 MMst in 2026. India is expected to remain a key market for U.S. coal, helping to sustain demand.
On the domestic front, the EIA predicts that U.S. electric power inventories will decline by 24% in 2025, reaching 98 MMst, as electricity consumption rises by 5% while coal production falls by 6%. This trend of inventory drawdowns is expected to continue into 2026, with coal consumption in the electric power sector forecast to drop by 7% and production falling by 3%. Despite the decrease in consumption, the EIA projects that coal stocks in the electric power sector will continue to be drawn down, reaching 76 MMst by the end of 2026, with the largest stock reductions expected during the third quarter of 2026 when power generation peaks.
The EIA’s forecast highlights the ongoing challenges facing the U.S. coal industry amid shifting global demand and domestic consumption trends.