TASHKENT, Uzbekistan, May 4. Netherlands-based ING Group considers a near-term rate cut by the Central Bank of Uzbekistan unlikely, Trend reports.
According to ING’s latest outlook, strong domestic economic growth and persistent external risks continue to complicate the inflation forecast. Analysts stated that monetary easing in the second half of 2026 appears to be an overly optimistic scenario.
Earlier, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan kept its policy rate unchanged at 14%, in line with market expectations. ING noted that the National Bank of Kazakhstan has taken a similar decision, reflecting a cautious regional stance amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
ING added that the regulator’s April statement was less hawkish than in March, indicating a lower probability of further tightening rather than preparation for an imminent rate cut.
At the same time, inflation indicators showed improvement. Annual headline inflation slowed to 7.1% in March, approaching the central bank’s year-end 2026 forecast of 6.5%. Core inflation also eased to 5.7% year-on-year, while household inflation expectations continued to decline.
Analysts also pointed to weaker fiscal stimulus as a supporting factor, noting that the consolidated budget deficit narrowed to 2.1% of GDP in 2025, compared to higher levels in previous years.
ING emphasized that the regulator remains cautious. In its April guidance, the central bank stated it would maintain "sufficient restrictiveness" if pro-inflationary risks materialize, replacing March’s more explicit signal that further tightening could be considered.