ASTANA, Kazakhstan, October 6. Kazakhstan faces inflationary pressures, with the consumer price index (CPI) projected to reach 13.7 percent by the end of 2025 from 8.6 percent in 2024, Trend reports via the Netherlands-based ING Group.
Analysts note that despite economic activity above trend levels, inflation remains stubbornly high. In response, the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) is expected to tighten monetary policy sharply.
The National Bank's key rate is forecast to rise from 15.25 percent at the end of 2024 to 18.00 percent by the end of 2025, and decline to 17.00 percent in 2026. ING experts emphasized that stricter measures are crucial to stabilizing inflation expectations. Meanwhile, CPI is expected to moderate to 10.5 percent in 2026.
Official data shows that in September 2025, annual inflation stood at 12.9 percent, up from 12.2 percent in August, while monthly inflation reached 1.1 percent. Prices for paid services rose 15.3 percent year-on-year, food products by 12.7 percent, and non-food goods by 10.8 percent.
The largest contributions to annual inflation came from food and non-alcoholic beverages (5 percentage points), housing services (1.9 points), and healthcare (1.5 points).
Inflation was highlighted as a key issue by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in his September 8 address to the nation. In his address, the President stressed that the government and the National Bank must act as a unified team to address the complex economic situation.
