BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 13. The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) expects Kazakhstan’s real GDP growth to reach 5.2% in 2026, following 6.5% in 2025, Trend reports, citing the EFSD.
Analysts note that despite the slowdown, growth rates will remain relatively high, and the positive output gap will persist.
In 2027-2028, the fund projects real GDP growth in Kazakhstan at 4.3% in 2027 and 4.2% in 2028.
According to the analytics, in the medium term, the slowdown will be driven by weakening investment momentum and expected fiscal consolidation. Inflation is expected to decline but will remain above the target level. Monetary policy is likely to stay relatively tight in the coming years, with gradual easing as inflationary pressures subside and the positive output gap narrows.
Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s GDP growth reached 6.5% in 2025. The National Bank of Kazakhstan expects growth in 2026 to fall within the range of 3.5% to 4.5%, noting that amid the high base effect of 2025, economic activity is likely to follow a more moderate trajectory in 2026 and the following years.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has revised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Kazakhstan upward to 4.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from its September outlook. The EBRD also projects growth of 4.5% for 2027. The World Bank (WB) has projected Kazakhstan's GDP will grow by 4.6% in 2026. For 2027, the bank anticipates a growth rate of 3.9%.
The United Nations expects Kazakhstan’s GDP to grow by 4.6% in 2026, while ING Group forecasts Kazakhstan’s GDP growth at 5% for 2026. For 2027, ING anticipates slightly slower growth, projecting an overall rate of around 4.5%.