BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 11. OPEC has revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025, now projecting an increase of 1.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year, a slight downward adjustment from last month’s estimate, Trend reports.
This adjustment reflects updated data and current market conditions. Total global oil demand is expected to reach 105.99 mb/d next year, slightly below the previously anticipated 106.1 mb/d, according to the bloc's latest report.
In detail, demand in the OECD is forecast to rise by 100,000 barrels per day to 45.88 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is projected to grow by 1.6 mb/d, reaching 60.1 mb/d. Specifically, oil demand in OECD Europe is expected to increase by 17,000 b/d to an average of 13.42 mb/d in 2025. The United States is projected to see a rise of 42,000 b/d, averaging 20.52 mb/d. OECD Asia Pacific's oil demand is forecast to grow marginally by 11,000 b/d to 7.25 mb/d, driven by transportation and petrochemical sector needs.
China is anticipated to continue leading global oil demand growth, with an expected increase of around 400,000 b/d, bringing its average to 17.43 mb/d. The Middle East is also set to see a notable rise, with demand projected to grow by 269,000 b/d to reach 9.13 mb/d in 2025.
For 2024, OPEC has slightly reduced its global oil demand growth forecast by 80,000 b/d, now estimating an increase of about 2.0 mb/d year-on-year. Despite this minor adjustment, the forecasted growth remains significantly above the pre-pandemic historical average of 1.4 mb/d.