BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 17. Global growth has remained more resilient than expected, with the impact of higher U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions proving short-lived, said Jihad Azour, Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), during a press briefing, Trend reports.
“Growth has held better than expected, and the impact of higher U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions has been short-lived,” Azour noted, opening his remarks on the global economy. He added that “output growth has held steady, and inflation remained moderate or eased in most regions.”
According to Azour, some of the current strength of the global economy reflects temporary factors, including “front-loading activity ahead of tariff increases, inventory adjustments, and significant investment in new AI technologies.” However, he cautioned that “as these factors fade, global demand may soften,” potentially affecting regional economies through trade, finance, and commodity channels.
Turning to the regional outlook, Azour said that growth in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region is projected to reach 3.2% in 2025, up from 2.1% in 2024, and above the IMF’s April forecast. “Oil exporters have benefited from higher oil output following the faster unwinding of OPEC-plus cuts,” he said. Meanwhile, “oil importers and Pakistan have gained from low energy prices, strong remittances, and a vibrant tourism sector, all supporting domestic demand.”
Looking ahead, the IMF expects growth to strengthen further to 3.7% in 2026, while inflation should remain moderate, “helped by lower food and energy prices and tight monetary policies.”
In the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA), Azour highlighted that growth is being supported by “strong consumption, credit expansion, and steady hydrocarbon exports.” The IMF projects average growth of 5.6% in 2025, before easing gradually to about 4% over the medium term as hydrocarbon production stabilizes and fiscal consolidation takes hold.
Despite the positive outlook, Azour warned that the region remains exposed to global uncertainties, underscoring the need for prudent fiscal management and continued reforms to sustain growth and resilience.