BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 4. Fitch Ratings has revised its gas price assumptions for 2025–2028, reflecting tighter European gas balances and shifts in U.S. production trends, Trend reports via Fitch.
In the base case scenario, Henry Hub gas prices are now projected at USD 3.50/mcf for 2025 (up from USD 3.40), while forecasts for 2026–2028 and mid-cycle remain unchanged at USD 3.50, 3.00, 2.75, and 2.75, respectively. TTF prices are unchanged at USD 12/mcf for 2025, revised up to USD 9/mcf for 2026 (from USD 8), and remain at USD 7/mcf for 2027–2028 and USD 5/mcf for mid-cycle.
Under the stress case scenario, Henry Hub forecasts for 2025 rose from USD 3.00/mcf to USD 3.50/mcf, while forecasts for 2026–2028 and mid-cycle remain at USD 2.50, 2.25, 2.25, and 2.25, respectively. TTF forecasts in the stress case jumped to USD 12/mcf for 2025 (from USD 5) and remain at USD 5/mcf for 2026–2028, with mid-cycle at USD 4.5/mcf.
Fitch noted: “The increased 2026 TTF gas price assumption reflects tighter European gas balances as LNG supply growth is constrained by project-timing slippage, while Russian pipeline flows remain structurally limited. Nevertheless, we continue to assume that the additional LNG liquefaction capacity coming on stream in 2026 and 2027 will exert significant downward pressure on TTF prices.
We have increased the 2025 base-case Henry Hub assumption to USD 3.5/mcf and kept the remaining assumptions unchanged. US gas production growth is outstripping consumption growth, while increasing LNG exports have balanced supply and demand. We maintain our expectation of a long-term marginal price of USD 2.75/mcf.”