BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 10. The World Bank (WB) expects downward trend in oil prices in 2024 and 2025, Trend reports via the Bank.
The WB forecasts oil prices to stand at $81 per barrel in 2024, as compared to $83.1 per barrel in 2023. In 2025, the prices are expected to go down to $78 per barrel.
Oil refers to the Brent crude oil benchmark.
“Crude oil prices were volatile last year, including in the wake of the conflict in the Middle East; they averaged $83/bbl, down from $100/bbl in 2022. Production cuts by OPEC+, which were deepened and extended in November 2023, have mostly been offset by robust output elsewhere, including in the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States,” said the WB.
Currently, OPEC+ spare capacity stands at just over 5 mb/d.
“Oil prices are expected to edge down to $81/bbl in 2024 as global activity slows and China’s economy continues to decelerate. An escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is a major upside risk to oil prices. Indeed, since the 1970s, a series of significant geopolitical events, often marked by military conflict, have exerted a pronounced impact on oil supplies. Further extensions of production cuts by OPEC+ (to beyond an expected phase-out of cuts in the first quarter of 2024) and stronger-than-expected demand could also result in higher prices,” reads the report released by the Bank.
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