BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 30. The average global price of diesel fuel in 2026 is expected to be $135 per barrel, compared with $91 in 2025, and in 2027, the price will fall to $122 per barrel.
This was reflected in a forecast by analysts at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions.
Restricted Strait of Hormuz transit will sustain elevated diesel prices at least through Q1 2027.
“The disruption has tightened the diesel market by limiting the effective availability of Middle Eastern crude and refined products, rather than by creating a broad shortage of global crude oil,” the analysts noted.
According to their estimates, the disruption will mostly impact markets in the Atlantic Basin. In particular, New York diesel prices will average $143 per barrel in 2026 and $126 per barrel in 2027. Meanwhile, prices can exceed $200 per barrel during several weeks in 2026.
BMI pointed out that the U.S.-Iran conflict has increased freight, insurance, security, and financing costs for seaborne cargoes. These costs are particularly significant for import-dependent Atlantic Basin markets, where replacement supplies require longer voyages and compete for limited tanker availability.
Low commercial inventories have reduced the market’s ability to absorb delayed cargoes, refinery outages, or further export restrictions.
According to the BMI forecast, from 2028, the restoration of trade flows and rebuilding of inventories will reduce diesel prices.
“However, demand from freight, agriculture and industry will keep prices above pre-disruption levels in key markets,” the report said.
The analysts also warned that supply increase outside the Middle East will only partly offset disrupted product flows, as logistical constraints and low inventories limit the pace of market rebalancing.
According to BMI estimates, the probability of a preliminary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in Q4 2026 amounts to 25%, in Q1 2027 - 40%, and in Q2 2027 - 5%. The remaining 30% probability is assigned to a return to high-intensity conflict before a preliminary agreement is reached.
“This assessment indicates that disruption risks will remain material through Q1 2027, the most likely period for an initial agreement,” the report added.
