BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 30. Global oil supply is expected to decline by 4.85 million barrels per day in 2026, while it is projected to increase by 6.9 million barrels per day in 2027.
This was stated in the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) report, OIES Oil Monthly.
According to the report, the forecast for 2026 has been revised upward by 160,000 barrels per day. This is due to a reduction in the expected decline in supply in the third quarter by 810,000 barrels per day.
"In September, disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East, including the Persian Gulf region, are estimated at 7.1 million barrels per day. This is 2.4 million barrels per day less than in August. Saudi Arabia accounted for 88% of this reduction.
The forecast for the reduction in crude oil production by OPEC+ countries in the third quarter of 2026 has been revised downward by 610,000 barrels per day to 4.7 million barrels per day on an annualized basis. In the fourth quarter, the reduction is expected to slow to 4 million barrels per day.
At the same time, total oil supply from the Middle East is projected to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter. However, supply disruptions in the region could still amount to 6.1 million barrels per day by the end of the year.
For 2026, the forecast for a reduction in crude oil production by OPEC+ countries has been raised by 280,000 barrels per day to 4.1 million barrels per day.
The forecast for crude oil production growth by non-OPEC+ countries remains largely unchanged at 640,000 barrels per day. Brazil will account for virtually all of the net increase in this group.
At the same time, the forecast for the production of liquid hydrocarbons, excluding crude oil, has been revised downward by 160,000 barrels per day. “Production of natural gas liquids (NGLs) in the Middle East will remain limited,” the report states.
In addition, the report notes that the forecast for global oil supply growth in 2027 has been lowered by 250,000 barrels per day to 6.9 million barrels per day.
“This is due to a revision of estimates for crude oil production by non-OPEC+ countries by 90,000 barrels per day and for the production of liquid hydrocarbons, excluding crude oil, by 180,000 barrels per day,” the report explains.
According to OIES estimates, the Middle East region will account for about 82% of the increase in global liquid hydrocarbon supply in 2027. Saudi Arabia and Iraq together will account for nearly half of this increase.
Iran is expected to account for about two-thirds of the projected supply disruptions from the Middle East by the end of 2027, making its supply outlook one of the key sources of uncertainty.
"In 2027, the United Arab Emirates will replace Brazil as the main source of production growth among non-OPEC+ countries. The UAE will account for more than 40% of the total increase in this group. At the same time, production growth in the U.S. is expected to remain below 2025 levels,” the institute’s report states.
