BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 15. OECD European oil demand in the first quarter of 2023 is expected to increase slightly by 30,000 barrels per day, Trend reports via monthly oil outlook from OPEC.
Oil demand forecast for Europe in the reporting period is expected to be restrained, as GDP growth is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent (0.5-percent decrease in the fourth quarter of 2022).
“Rising energy prices, geopolitical tension and supply-chain bottlenecks will likely keep input costs high in the manufacturing sector. This will potentially lead to slackening oil demand in the region's manufacturing in the first quarter of 2023,” OPEC explained.
However, according to OPEC, the expected high demand for heating in the context of the natural gas crisis will continue to facilitate the transition from gas to oil, increasing demand for distillate and fuel oil in the region. In addition, the increase in air travel will increase the demand for kerosene.
As the report noted, the Euro zone GDP is forecast to slow from a growth rate of 2 percent in the third quarter of 2022 to 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter.
“Slowing economic growth, geopolitical tension and trade-related bottlenecks are expected to continue affecting economic activity in the region, particularly manufacturing. These factors may affect the region's oil demand, is expected to remain flat at zero level in the fourth quarter of 2022,” OPEC said.
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