BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 25. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that US oil production will rise by 690,000 b/d to an average of 20.2 mb/d, with crude oil accounting for 320,000 b/d of the increase and NGLs contributing 380,000 b/d, Trend reports.
US oil production dropped by 150,000 b/d month-on-month in September, totaling 20.4 mb/d, as precautionary production curtailments were made in the Gulf of Mexico due to three major hurricanes. However, production rebounded strongly in October, rising by 290,000 b/d, as operations in the Gulf of Mexico recovered (+180,000 b/d) and light tight oil (LTO) output continued to grow (+30,000 b/d). Additionally, natural gas liquids (NGL) supply saw a 60,000 b/d increase.
Looking ahead to 2025, total US oil supplies are expected to climb further, reaching 20.8 mb/d, driven by a 380,000 b/d rise in crude production, while NGL growth slows to 240,000 b/d.
Overall, the growth in US output has been particularly strong in recent months. In August, total supply reached a record high of 20.5 mb/d, with NGL production up by 140,000 b/d to 7 mb/d, just shy of May’s record levels. Crude supply also saw a boost, rising by 200,000 b/d, with states like Montana, New Mexico, Ohio, and Texas posting their best-ever production rates.
One of the main drivers of US oil growth has been the Permian Basin, which continues to show impressive productivity improvements. Third-quarter reports highlighted that publicly listed companies in the region have enhanced drilling efficiencies, resulting in higher growth rates than initially expected. The number of oil rigs in the Permian Basin has shown a 60% increase in productivity since the first quarter of 2019, with frac spreads improving by 50%. Meanwhile, well costs have risen only 5% since the same period.
While growth in US light tight oil production is expected to slow to 320,000 b/d in 2025, the continued productivity improvements in the Permian Basin and other key oil-producing regions ensure that US oil output will remain a key contributor to global supply growth in the coming years.
