BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 24. The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan has decided to reduce the base rate from 17% to 16.75% per annum with a corridor of +/- 1 percentage point, the bank's press service reports.
"Annual inflation slowed down for the ninth consecutive month, standing at 10.3% in June compared to 10.4% in May. Food inflation declined from 10.7% to 10.4%, while non-food inflation remained steady at 11.7%. Meanwhile, service inflation rose to 9% (up from 8.7% in May) driven by rising prices for unregulated services, despite an ongoing annual decrease in regulated utility tariffs", the bank said.
Monthly inflation in June reached 0.8%, with the median estimate of seasonally adjusted core inflation at 0.9%. The ongoing disinflationary trend is supported by monetary policy, the strengthening exchange rate of the tenge, stabilized consumer activity, and anti-inflationary measures by the Government and the National Bank.
Inflation expectations for the year ahead increased to 13.4% in June from 12.7% in May. Professional market participants maintain their 2026 forecast at 10% and have revised their 2027 expectations downward to 7.8%.
According to the NBK, in the external sector, volatility persists due to renewed conflict escalation in the Middle East pushing up energy prices, alongside accelerating inflation in Russia and tight global monetary conditions maintained by the ECB and US Federal Reserve.
Despite global pressures, domestic economic activity is accelerating. Kazakhstan's GDP grew by 4.1% in the first half of 2026, driven by a 5.3% expansion in non-mining sectors. Total investments grew by 9.6 percent, while non-resource private investment surged by 28.9%.
The National Bank noted that while current monetary conditions, reserve requirements, and synchronized quasifiscal measures are anchoring inflation, the balance of risks remains tilted toward the pro-inflationary side due to volatile expectations, potential tariff increases, and external fuel dynamics.
The central bank emphasized that future decisions on the base rate will depend on incoming data regarding inflation dynamics and external market stability, maintaining a moderately tight policy to achieve its medium-term 5 percent inflation target.
