BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 17. The global record rise in the price of gold is in the spotlight of investors and market participants, Trend reports.
The increase in geopolitical tensions in the world, uncertainty in financial markets and expectations about the policies of central banks are among the main factors that determine this growth in price.
The fact that an ounce of gold on the Commodity Exchange has reached a historical maximum, exceeding $ 4,300, is also affecting the Azerbaijani market.
The direction in which prices will change in the future is of particular importance for both local and international investors.
Commenting on the issue, economist Rovshan Amirjanov said that the increase in the price of gold to this level also directly affects the Azerbaijani market.
According to him, the price of gold in the country is formed based on the indicators of international exchanges, and in recent days, an increase in the selling prices of both bullion and jewelry of various standards - namely 585 and 750 standards - has been observed in the domestic market:
"The price increase is not limited to gold, this trend also applies to other precious metals, including silver, platinum and palladium. A relatively stable situation is observed in the gemstone market. In some segments, especially diamonds below 0.30 carats, a slight decrease in prices is recorded against the background of weakening demand," he explained.
The expert also announced his forecasts regarding the price of gold.
"Although certain corrections in prices are possible, gold is expected to remain above the level of $4,300. Against the background of current global economic and geopolitical trends, the possibility of additional price increases by the end of the year is not excluded. In this context, reaching the range of $4,300-4,800 for gold is considered a realistic prospect," he said.
How profitable are investments in gold at the moment?
Amirjanov emphasized that in the current situation, investing in gold is considered profitable from an investment perspective.
"Especially 999.9 fineness bars and coins are considered a more convenient tool for investors, as they are directly linked to the market price. In this type of product, the loss of value during sale is minimal and additional costs are almost non-existent.
On the other hand, in 585 or 750 fineness jewelry, a significant part of the product value is related to workmanship and design elements. Therefore, these products are mainly intended for aesthetic and everyday use and are considered less effective as an investment tool compared to bars and coins," he added.
The price of one ounce of gold may exceed $5,000
Another economist, Eldeniz Amirov, said that with this trend, the price of gold will increase sharply by the end of 2028, and it's not difficult to justify this.
"From January through September 2025, one ounce of gold rose from $2,720 to $3,700. That is, an increase of 35.7 percent occurred in nine months. If this dynamics continues, there is a possibility that the price will double in the next three years. In other words, if the US government further strengthens the current economic course without changing it, gold may exceed $5,000. This is not an absolute figure, but since Donald Trump is president, the probability is high," he clarified.
The economist underlined that historical experience also confirms this.
"When Donald Trump came to power in 2017, the price of gold was about $1,200. On the last day of his rule, in January 2021, the price was $1,840. That is, gold rose by 52–53 percent during Trump's term.
Now Trump is in power, and gold is constantly rising in price. The question arises, why is gold rising during Trump's term? The answer is simple: Trump is a supporter of a cheap dollar. When the dollar depreciates, U.S. exports appear cheaper in foreign markets and their competitiveness increases.
Trump has repeatedly argued with the leadership of the Federal Reserve System (FES) for this purpose. He opposed high interest rates, because high interest rates strengthen the dollar. As the dollar strengthens, it becomes more difficult for U.S. exports, and manufacturers lose out to competitors."
Dollar depreciation and global risks increase the price of gold
According to Amirov, the dollar depreciation causes a change in the price of gold.
"This is because gold is valued in dollars. When the dollar weakens, gold becomes more attractive in the world market, demand increases, and the price rises. In addition, during periods of weak dollars, investors prefer gold to insure against risks.
Thus, both economic policy and investor behavior constantly make gold a safe investment instrument. Similar dynamics are observed today. Against the background of the dollar depreciation policy and global risks, the price of gold continues to increase."
The economist noted that in this regard, governments may consider increasing the share of gold in parts by the end of 2027 in order to make their reserves more stable.
"This is because we can expect a stagnation in the price of gold starting from the end of 2028.
At the same time, this statement is also for other legal entities and individuals who want to invest," he concluded.
To note, from January through August 2025, 2,113 kilograms of gold were produced in Azerbaijan. Gold production increased by 637 kilograms or 43.1 percent compared to the same period last year. As of September 1, of this year, the amount of ready gold reserves in the country was 114.5 kilograms.
Meanwhile, in the first eight months of this year, Azerbaijan imported 38,459 kilograms of gold worth $3.75 billion from 22 countries. Compared to the same period last year, the value of gold imported to the country grew by $2.2 billion or 2.5 times, and the volume increased by 18,554 kilograms or 1.9 times. The TOP 3 countries importing gold to Azerbaijan during the reporting period included Russia, the UK and the U.S.