BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 28. According to the latest International Energy Agency (IEA) outlook, Europe’s piped gas imports, including supplies from Norway, are projected to fall by more than 25% between 2024 and 2030, a decline of roughly 60 bcm, Trend reports.
The reduction is driven primarily by the planned halt of Russian piped gas deliveries to the European Union by 2028, in line with the European Commission’s proposal. Russian volumes, which cannot be redirected to other markets, are expected to drop nearly 30 bcm compared with 2024, contributing to a global supply loss.
Piped gas imports from North Africa are also expected to decrease, due to rising domestic demand and the expiry of key long-term contracts. Norway’s deliveries are projected to decline amid lower domestic production, according to the Norwegian Offshore Directorate.
In contrast, Russia’s piped gas exports to China are forecast to increase by 75% over the period, driven by the Power of Siberia pipeline and the launch of the Far East Pipeline in 2027, with additional potential supply of 6 bcm under recent Gazprom-CNPC agreements. These gains are partially offset by declining exports from Central Asia, particularly Uzbekistan, due to upstream production challenges.
Elsewhere, piped gas flows between Iran and Iraq are expected to stop amid tightening sanctions, prompting Iraq to expand LNG import capacity, potentially through leased floating storage and regasification units. Exports from Israel to Egypt are anticipated to continue growing, including via the 6 bcm/year Nitzana pipeline. In South America, Bolivian piped gas exports to Brazil are expected to cease as production declines and supply contracts expire.
The IEA notes that these shifts in piped gas flows will have broader implications for global gas supply, reinforcing the strategic importance of LNG as a flexible alternative for markets facing declining pipeline imports.
