Russia, Moscow, Jan. 24/ Trend R. Agayev/ In 2010 Russia will face with recession, experts, questioned by Trend , said but they differ in forecasts concerning economic slump.
"Estimation published by the Russia's Ministry of Economy and Development - zero growth at $41 per barrel of oil is fully real and reasonable," Ekaterina Malofeeva, senior economist of Renaissance Capital in Russia and CIS countries, told Trend .
The Russia's Ministry of Economy and Development reconsidered macro economical forecasts for 2009, proceeding from annual average price for oil $41 per barrel. According to new forecasts, GDP of the country in 2009 will reduce 0.3%. According to new official estimation, inflation in 2009 will total 13%.
It is connected with very low prices for oil now but because of devaluation of ruble, interruptions in bank system are observed and as a consequence serious interruptions in functioning of entire economy, Malofeeva said.
Even if prices for oil remain at the same low level, owing to great devaluation of ruble, activity in manufacturing industry managed by import is expected to resume, i.e. the second half of a year will be better than the first one, she said.
"If recession and serious pressing of economy are expected beginning of year, the growth will be in the latter half," Malofeeva said.
Forecast of the country's Ministry of Economy and Development is rather optimistic, Vladimir Osakovski, chief of strategic planning and development board of Unicredit Bank, said. According to Unicredit Bank forecasts, GDP rates of growth will be negative in 2009 - minus 1%.
According to "Alfa-Bank" forecasts, level of GDP reduction will total 3% per year.
"First, it will be connected with significant slow down, reduction of consumption due to deteriorating situation of households, growing unemployment, reduction of population's incomes and other reasons," Olga Naydenova, analyst of "Alfa-Bank", told Trend on Jan. 22.
The necessity to support real sector of economy will limit investment opportunities of the country and it isn't worth waiting for investment growth in private sector and other sectors as investments are expected to slow down as a whole, expert said.
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