Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 11 / Trend, E. Kosolapova /
The People's IPO in Kazakhstan may face obstacles, speaker-expert of the analytical center Asyl Invest Ivar Baikenov said.
"It is clear that the program can break out of its schedule, and some difficulties may occur with some companies due to the presence of other shareholders (this is illustrated by Air Astana, which also has planned the placement of its shares for this year)," Baikenov told Trend.
It was originally planned to place Air Astana stock for the "People's IPO" program in 2013. However, Kazakhstan's National Welfare Fund Samruk-Kazyna, which owns 51 percent of the company, couldn't come to an agreement with BAE Systems, which owns 49 percent of the shares. As a result, not to lose a controlling stake in the company, it was decided to postpone Air Astana's placement in the IPO.
In addition, according to Baikenov, creation of the Unified Pension Fund may have an impact on the program.
"One major institutional player gets created, becomes a monopoly and dictates the mood of the market," Baikenov said.
According to the expert, it is obvious from the KazTransOil's example that pension funds creates a large demand for the company's shares on the secondary market, respectively, pushing up quotes. If there is only one fund, such a scenario shouldn't be expected.
"That is, one of the potential drivers of shareholder value drops out, which means that the situation may turn out the way that in the end the demand of individuals will not be sufficient for all companies," Baikenov said.
Thus, according to him, there are initial difficulties in the offering of shares of subsequent companies.
Another important factor in shaping the demand for stocks is their dividend yield, Baikenov said.
"This factor is currently slowing down the process of further implementation of the People's IPO. Growth of quotations from the initial public offering (of KazTransOil's shares) amounted to just over 10 percent, while people expected much more. Due to the fact that the rate of pension funds as a whole was not justified, people now need to be provided with a good dividend yield, which in the end should become a potential success factor for subsequent IPO's", he said.
Thus, according to the expert, until the KazTransOil doesn't pay off dividends, which is scheduled for the beginning of summer, making hasty placements would be a risky decision. This in turn might result in the fact of only one company making placements this year.
"Conducting the IPO of all planned companies over the next three years would be very challenging," Baikenov said.
Earlier, deputy chairman of Kazakhstan's National Welfare Fund Samruk-Kazyna reported that there is a possibility for reduction in the number of companies to be placed on "People's IPO" in 2013.
The People's IPO will allow citizens of Kazakhstan to become co-owners of the nation's largest companies. It is projected for 2012-2015. In 2012, KazTransOil entered the program.
