BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 28. Brent prices are expected to remain in low-$90s towards the year-end, Trend reports October 28 with reference to the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES).
“Our Reference forecast for Brent is downgraded to $100.8/b from $105.1/b in 2022 and to $94/b from $105.8/b in 2023. We expect Brent to remain in the low-$90s towards year end and to retreat further in the $80s in H1 2023 on negative demand pressures, before rebounding in the second half of the year and potentially breaking again the $100/b mark in Q4,” reads the OIES report.
The Oxford Institute experts believe that a deeper recession could push Brent lower in the high-$70s by the end of 2022 but they see a $70/b price floor in 2023 supported by the latest OPEC+ output cuts.
“On the upside, oil prices are not seen departing much higher
than $110/b throughout 2023. The balance of risks this month is
further skewed on
the downside with negative demand risks associated with a longer
period of weakness in global growth dominating the outlook in 2023
and potentially
lowering prices to $81.8/b for the year as a whole.
Supply-pressures combined with favourable demand conditions
particularly in H2 could still lift prices to $104.3/b annually,
but on balance downside risks prevail by -$6/b. The Brent Prospect
that takes into account the uncertainty underlying the outlook has
now converged with our reference outlook, edging only slightly
lower to $93/b in 2023.”
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