Azerbaijan, Baku, Apr. 5 / Trend E.Tariverdiyeva /
After signing a new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START-2) between the U.S. and Russia, one may observe problems with its ratification in the parliaments of both countries, experts say.
"The ratification of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) by the respective legislative bodies is a very political matter and can be used by either side, especially by Russia to exercise influence and control over the direction of the other side's foreign policy," U.S. expert on Security Yannis Stivachtis believes.
"The have already been formed quite definite group of the U.S. lawmakers, who put very strict conditions on this contract. America will face a serious political struggle," Russian military expert Alexander Golts was quoted as saying by the Radio Liberty.
Russian and U.S. presidents Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama will sing START-2 in Prague Apr.8.
A corresponding agreement was reached during a telephone conversation of the two leaders, Russian President's Spokesman Natalya Timakova told ITAR-TASS.
The START was signed between the U.S. and the USSR on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms. The treaty was signed on 31 July 1991 and entered into force on 5 December 1994. This was the first in the history of Russian-American documents, providing not only limit to the growth of arms, but real reductions of already stockpiled arsenals of strategic nuclear weapons.
Duration of the START is expired Dec.5, 2009, but the Russian and the U.S presidents agreed to prepare a new agreement.
According to experts, the new START will face a fierce debate in the U.S. parliament and delay in the ratification in the Russian Duma.
American expert on the U.S. legal system Bert Rockman issure the agreement will be ratified in Russia, though the Russians may wait to see if it is ratified in the U.S.
However, in his opinion, the main problems with the ratification of the treaty would arise in the U.S. Congress.
"If this is in the form of a treaty, which I think it is, it will require a 2/3 vote in the Senate," Head of the Political Science Department at Purdue University Professor Rockman wrote Trend in an e-mail.
He said this means that President Barack Obama has to get all of the Democrats + eight Republicans. "I'm having trouble imagining that at the moment, given the poisonous political atmosphere and scorched earth tactics of the Republicans," the expert said.
However, he did not rule out that some Republicans will vote for the START in the Senate.
"Here are some possible Republican defectors to Obama - Snowe and Collins of Maine, Graham of South Carolina; Brown of Massachusetts; Lugar of Indiana; Voinovich of Ohio. That gets me up to 6, assuming they do wind up supporting the treaty," he added.
Everything would have to fall right for Obama, if all the Democrats stay with him and he gets the necessary number of Republican defectors.
However, the expert assesses the probability at a maximum of 20 percent, as there may be defectors to Obama from the Democratic Party.
"Democrats Nelson of Nebraska, Lincoln of Arkansas, Lieberman (an Independent) of Connecticut may refuse to ratify it," the expert said.
The Russian military expert also believes that the new START will face great problems in the U.S. Congress.
"Regarding, the U.S. Senate, if the process delays and the contract will not be ratified until November, after the midterm elections to the Senate Democrats may lose the necessary majority to ratify the treaty," Golts said. "Republicans will be happy to wink at nothing."
European expert on security, Beata Kviatek-Simanska believesthe U.S. Congress is not very happy about the concessions already made before signing the treaty, as it is not very happy about the new Obama's nominee for the post of anti-missile defense adviser, Philip Coyle.
Also, the congressmen did not forget that Russia helped Iran to develop the missile capabilities. Therefore, any side deal in exchange for Russia's ratification would undermine the importance of the START, she believes.
According to observers, the ratification of the START in the Russian Duma will not cause as much debate as in the U.S. Congress.
"Apparently, the Russian Duma will" play the fool "just as much as fierce political battles will last in the U.S. Senate. We are well aware that the Russian parliament - is not a place for discussion," he said.
Simanska said the ratification of the new START is in the interest of both Russia and the United States.
"I am sure Russian politicians are aware that the new START is very much in the interests of Russia and they will support the ratification of the new treaty," she wrote Trend in an e-mail.
U.S. expert on Security Stivachtis believes one should expect less problems with the US Senate and more with the Russian Duma
The ratification of the new treaty may used by either side, particularly by Russia to exercise influence over, as well as control the direction of the other side's foreign policy, Director of the International Studies Program at Virginia Tech (USA), Stivachtis wrote Trend in an e-mail.
Consequently, the issue of the ratification of START will come to reflect the state of relations between the two sides and how satisfied they are with each others' commitments and actions.
"Generally speaking and looking back into history, one should expect less problems with the US Senate and more with the Russian Duma," the expert said.
The experts believe Moscow's desire to include the items relating to the U.S. missile defense systems in Europe to the treaty may be one of the problems of the treaty.
The Kremlin proceeds from the fact that the START-2 is legally linked to the missile defense systems, although the missile defense is the subject of dialogue in a different format, Presidential Aide Sergei Prikhodko was quoted as saying by ITAR-TASS.
According to Simanska, the new treaty is not only a new impetus to cooperation between the two powers, but also an opportunity to give new meaning to missile defense in Europe.
Stivachtis thinks that "the issue of anti-missile defense may become part of another legal or political instrument, such as a protocol, treaty, or declarations but not part of the
START.
"However, I argue that "the issue of anti-missile defense may become part of another legal or political instrument, such as a protocol, treaty, or declarations but not part of the START," he told.
The new START treaty is important first of all as a symbol of cooperation between the United States and Russia in the field of security and defence, notwithstanding that there are a lot of speculations over its real practical effect on reduction of nuclear forces, Simanska said.
"This means that the content, although important, is overshadowed by the symbolic meaning of the Treaty," she added.
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