BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 19. Global oil supply growth for 2023 is set to slow down to 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) following last year’s OPEC+ led growth of 4.7 mb/d, Trend reports via the latest oil market update from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
"An overall non-OPEC+ rise of 1.9 mb/d will be tempered by an OPEC+ drop of 870,000 b/d due to expected declines in Russia," the report said.
According to the outlook, the US is expected to be the world’s
leading source of supply growth and, along
with Canada, Brazil and Guyana, is set to hit an annual production
record for a second year straight.
Thus, despite the modest growth in 2022, total oil supplies in 2023 will rise to a record high of 101.1 mb/d, the IEA forecasts.
"While world oil supply is poised to outpace demand in 1Q23 and meet it in 2Q23, a substantial deficit could develop in 2H23 as demand gallops ahead. That would shift the focus onto spare production capacity, most of which is held by Saudi Arabia, along with the UAE. Effective spare capacity, excluding volumes shut in by sanctions on Iran and Russia, is projected to average 3.5 mb/d in 2023, up from 3.2 mb/d in 4Q22. But if OPEC+ were to respond to the call on its crude and ramp up to balance the market, that spare cushion would be squeezed wafer thin," the report concluded.
Meanwhile, global oil demand growth forecast for 2023 has been revised up by 80,000 barrels per day (b/d), compared to the last month's report, to 1.9 mb/d. Thus, world oil demand for the whole 2023 is set at 101.7 mb/d.
