BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 6. The global oil supply is predicted to increase by 1.3 mb/d in 2023, showing a 70,000 b/d uptick, the experts at Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) estimate, Trend reports.
This growth is primarily driven by stronger non-OPEC figures in the first half of 2023, but there's a downward revision of 160,000 b/d to 1.5 mb/d in 2024, the OIES noted.
According to the institute, the OPEC-10's crude oil growth has been reduced for both 2023 and 2024, with cuts of 120,000 b/d and 130,000 b/d, respectively. These adjustments stem from Saudi Arabia extending its production cut until August and additional voluntary OPEC+ cuts. However, this is balanced out by a 130,000 b/d increase in Iranian production to reach 2.9 mb/d in 2023. At the same time, Russian crude production is expected to remain close to the 9.5 mb/d target for the rest of the year, as growth outside OPEC+ slows down with the easing of US shale production in the second half.
Meanwhile, the OIES has lowered the balance of risks for both 2023 and 2024. Immediate downside demand risks have led us to decrease the H2 risk balance by -$1.4/b. In addition, the institute adjusted the price risk balance for 2024 by -$1.4/b due to more robust expectations of Russian output in 2023, OPEC+ maintaining a larger spare capacity cushion, and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and risks.
