BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 23. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) has assessed that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz — while highly unlikely — would have significant implications for global liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets, particularly in Asia and Europe.
In comments provided to Trend, the OIES noted that following recent U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, fears have resurfaced that Tehran might retaliate by attempting to block the key maritime chokepoint. The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global oil and LNG flows, including most exports from Qatar and the UAE.
Despite this risk, OIES considers an actual closure improbable for several reasons. “Iran relies heavily on oil revenues, which would be cut off if the Strait is blocked,” the Institute stated. Moreover, both the U.S. and potentially China — which is heavily dependent on Gulf energy — would likely respond militarily to keep the route open, making a sustained blockade difficult for Iran to execute or survive.
Still, OIES explored the potential global gas market consequences if the disruption were to occur. Qatar and the UAE exported around 115 billion cubic meters (bcm) of LNG in the 12 months to May 2025 — a volume comparable to the 135 bcm annual decline in Russian pipeline gas to Europe since 2021. The key difference is geographic: around 80% of Gulf LNG exports go to Asian markets, including China, India, South Korea, and Japan, while the rest serves European countries like Italy, Belgium, and Poland.
If flows from Qatar and the UAE were halted, Asia would likely bear the immediate burden. In comparison to the 2022 price shock in Europe — where the TTF benchmark reached $47/MMBTU — a similar disruption today could push prices back toward levels seen during that crisis. Asian spot prices, which averaged $34/MMBTU in 2022, may serve as a better guide than Europe’s previous spikes, given current LNG trade patterns. By 2024, TTF prices had dropped to an average of $12.50/MMBTU.
While the OIES underscores that the market is not yet facing a material disruption, the analysis highlights how energy security vulnerabilities persist in an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape.
