BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 18. The Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES) has significantly revised down its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025 and 2026, citing heightened global economic uncertainty following the escalation of U.S. trade tariffs earlier this month, Trend reports.
According to its latest monthly outlook, OIES now expects Brent to average $71.7 per barrel in 2025, down $2.7/b from last month’s forecast, and $68.5/b in 2026, a $3.6/b downward revision. The adjustment comes despite a modest quarter-on-quarter increase in prices during Q1 2025, with Brent averaging $75.6/b, slightly above both prior and December projections.
However, market sentiment shifted sharply after the U.S. announced a sweeping tariff escalation on April 2. Brent briefly tested the $60/b floor before stabilizing near $65/b in the first half of April. OIES emphasized that while headline prices are under pressure due to recession fears and extreme policy uncertainty, the underlying price structure remains supported by solid fundamentals.
As a result, the institute cut its Q2 2025 forecast by $4.5/b to $68.5/b and its H2 2025 outlook by $3.5/b to $71.3/b, from the previously expected $74.8/b.
Looking ahead, OIES expects Brent to stay within a $65–70/b range in 2026, with an annual average of $65.7/b—$2.8/b lower than its previous baseline projection. Despite risks of renewed tariffs once the current 90-day reprieve expires, OIES points to potential near-term upside catalysts including strong Q1 oil demand growth, persistently low global oil inventories, rising geopolitical tensions, and slowing non-OPEC+ supply growth.
These factors could help lift Brent prices back toward the low-$70s range in the near term, even as broader economic headwinds weigh on the longer-term outlook.
