BISHKEK, Kyrgyzstan, April 21. Kyrgyzstan’s real GDP is projected to increase by 5.9 percent in 2025, 5.6 percent in 2026, and 5.4 percent in 2027, according to the forecasts by the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD), Trend reports.
The EFSD notes that while the rapid expansion of the services sector, observed over the past three years, will gradually slow, robust growth will continue in the construction and industrial sectors. These projections suggest a shift in the structure of economic drivers, with the real sector gaining momentum.
Inflationary pressures are expected to intensify in the short term due to rising food prices at the end of 2024 and early 2025, as well as the anticipated increase in electricity tariffs in May 2025. The EFSD forecasts that inflation will average 6.7 percent in 2025, nearing the upper bound of the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan's target range. In the absence of additional shocks, inflation is expected to ease to around 6 percent in 2026–2027.
The EFSD also highlights that the state budget is projected to remain in surplus, supported by strong non-tax revenues, including dividends from state-owned enterprises, profits of the National Bank, and income from the placement of temporarily available budget funds.
Meanwhile, the normalization trend in Kyrgyzstan’s balance of payments, which began in Q2 2024, is expected to continue throughout the forecast period. However, the Fund warns of risks related to increased support for the underperforming energy sector and the implementation of large-scale infrastructure projects. Budget revenues may also decline due to reduced imports and lower gold production.
By the end of 2024, Kyrgyzstan's gross domestic product surpassed 1.5 trillion soms (around $17.2 billion), exhibiting a growth trajectory of nine percent.
