DUSHANBE, Tajikistan, April 22. Tajikistan’s economic growth is expected to decelerate to 7.5 percent in 2025 due to a slowdown in domestic demand driven by declining remittance inflows relative to GDP, according to the forecast by the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD), Trend reports.
The EFSD notes that while remittance volumes reached elevated levels during 2022–2024, they are projected to gradually return to their long-term trend. As a result, the surplus of the current account will shrink to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2025 and turn into a deficit of 1.9 percent by 2027. Nonetheless, the balance of payments is expected to remain stable due to lower capital outflows, including reduced demand for foreign currency.
In light of budgetary limitations, the administration is
projected to implement a prudent fiscal strategy. The fiscal gap is
anticipated to oscillate between 1.5 and 0.7 percent of the gross
domestic product in the fiscal years 2025 through 2027.
In the context of sustained elevated global food price indices, the
inflationary trajectory for 2025 is anticipated to converge towards
the upper threshold of the National Bank of Tajikistan’s designated
target bandwidth. Nonetheless, in the intermediate horizon, the
mean annual inflation rate is anticipated to moderate and converge
towards the central tendency of the designated target
bandwidth.
The EFSD also highlights several external and fiscal risks, including a potential deterioration in the global economic environment, which could lead to reduced remittances and lower exports. In addition, fiscal sustainability may be challenged by delays in external donor financing and rising costs associated with large infrastructure projects.
In 2024, the country's GDP exceeded 150 billion somoni (over $13.7 billion), with real growth reaching 8.4 percent.
