BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 11. Global oil demand is forecast to grow steadily over the next quarter century, with transportation and industrial sectors accounting for the lion’s share of consumption, according to the latest long-term energy outlook released by OPEC, Trend reports.
Worldwide oil demand is projected to increase from 103.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024 to 122.9 mb/d by 2050 – a total rise of 19.2 mb/d. This growth will be led overwhelmingly by the transportation sector, which will remain the backbone of global oil use, accounting for more than 57% of total demand throughout the outlook period.
OPEC notes that oil consumption in transport – including road, aviation, rail, and marine sectors – is set to grow from 59.4 mb/d in 2024 to 70.2 mb/d in 2050. Road transport alone will add 5.3 mb/d over this period, followed by aviation (+4.2 mb/d), reflecting the recovery and continued expansion of global air travel. Marine bunkers and rail will also see moderate growth, adding a combined 1.3 mb/d by 2050.
Transport remains the largest source of incremental oil demand, the report states, highlighting its structural importance in global energy systems, particularly in developing economies where road infrastructure and passenger vehicle ownership are expanding.
The industrial sector – comprising petrochemicals and other industrial uses – is also set for strong growth. Total demand from industry is forecast to rise from 28.5 mb/d in 2024 to 35.2 mb/d in 2050. Within that, petrochemicals will see a robust increase of 4.7 mb/d, driven by sustained demand for plastics and other oil-based materials. Other industrial uses will grow by 2 mb/d over the same period.
By 2050, the industrial sector’s share in global oil demand will rise to nearly 29%, up from 27% in 2024, as manufacturing, construction, and chemical production continue to expand in emerging markets.
In contrast, oil use in other sectors—including residential, commercial, agriculture, and power generation—will remain relatively stable, hovering around 17 mb/d through 2050. These sectors collectively accounted for about 15% of oil demand in 2024, a share that will decline slightly to 14% by 2050. Notably, oil use in electricity generation is set to fall marginally by 0.5 mb/d over the forecast period, reflecting a continued shift toward renewable and gas-based power.
