BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 15. The analytical company Argus forecasts the activation of Kazakhstan's oil supplies through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, the report of Argus on "Oil Market: Kazakhstan's Export Potential" said, Trend reports.
According to forecasts reflected in the document, about 2 million tons of oil from Kazakhstan may pass through BTC in 2024, compared to almost 1.4 million tons in 2023, and there is a prospect of growth with decreasing dependence on oil transit through Russia.
BTC Blend was trading at a premium of $2.5 a barrel as of mid-June. Approximately the same premium was for the Kebco grade (Kazakhstan Export Blend), which went from Kazakhstan to Novorossiysk and on to Europe. Other export directions and blends, where Kazakhstan oil may be present, are less profitable and even unprofitable," the study of Argus says.
However, experts of this analytical organization recognize that the "Caspian Pipeline Consortium" (CPC), which stretches from Kazakhstan through Russia to Novorossiysk, was and will remain the main export route for Kazakh oil.
"BTC's export potential is 60 million tons of oil per year. Its actual load in 2023 was 29.4 million tons. The issue rests on the quality of oil and the impact on the price of BTC Blend'," Argus noted, specifying that negotiations with SOCAR are ongoing.
Negotiations on the use of the Baku-Supsa oil pipeline are also underway.
The most powerful oil pipeline from Kazakhstan is CPC, with an expected capacity of 72.5 million tons of oil per year at peak (the load in 2023 was 56.6 million tons).
The Druzhba pipeline (via the Atyrau-Samara line) could carry 1.2 million tons of Kazakhstan's oil to the EU in 2024, compared to 1 million tons in 2023.
"In 2024, among the routes under discussion are deliveries via Iran and access to the European Adria pipeline, which could take Kazakh oil to the Adriatic port of Omisalj (Croatia). Also, rail transit to all ports nearest to Kazakhstan, including on the Black Sea", the material of Argus noted.
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