ASTANA, Kazakhstan, December 13. Kazakhstan’s economy is set to hit the brakes in 2026, with GDP growth anticipated to take a backseat, easing to around 4.5-5.0%, Trend reports via the Netherlands-based ING Group.
After a strong performance in 2025, driven largely by oil and consumption, the moderation in growth comes as fiscal consolidation measures take hold, including a VAT hike from 12% to 16%. This tax hike is bound to throw a wrench in the works of consumption, which has been the bread and butter of economic activity.
According to ING, the slowdown in oil production and a deceleration in lending growth will further weigh on economic momentum. Despite these challenges, Kazakhstan’s diverse industrial sectors, including agriculture, mining, and manufacturing, are expected to continue contributing to the economy’s resilience, though at a slower pace than in the previous year.
Earlier the National Bank of Kazakhstan revealed that the country's economy is expected to expand 6-6.5% in 2025. As such, the NBK revised its earlier projection higher due to faster-than-expected oil production and a recent pickup in investment and consumer demand, partly ahead of the planned 2026 VAT reform.
For 2026, growth is now forecast at 3.5-4.5%, down from previous expectations, reflecting the high 2025 base and the dampening effects of tax and fiscal consolidation measures on domestic demand. According to the bank, economic expansion is projected to reach 4-5% in 2027, supported by continued investment growth, moderate consumer demand, and higher oil output. The central bank upheld its foundational crude oil price projection at $60 per barrel of Brent throughout the predictive timeframe.