BAKU, Azerbaijan, Dec. 20
By Fakhri Vakilov - Trend:
According to preliminary estimates of the main macroeconomic indicators of Uzbekistan at the end of 2019, it is expected that GDP growth will be 5.5 percent, compared to 5.1 percent last year with a nominal GDP of $58.3 billion, Trend reports with reference to Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Finance.
The ministry notes that the growth is due to internal factors, namely, a strong growth in domestic demand.
This year, domestic demand growth is supported by capital investments in economy, which are projected to increase by 28.6 percent. Thus, centralized state investment will amount to $5.4 billion, which is 23 percent more than in 2018. Moreover, the inflow of foreign direct investment will reach $2-$2.5 billion.
Growth was also supported by expansionary fiscal policies with a consolidated budget deficit of 1.3 percent of GDP (in 2018, a surplus of 0.5 percent of GDP). In addition, the Ministry of Finance points to an increase in real household incomes (projected growth for 2019 - 8 percent) as a result of a significant increase in wages in the public sector, reduction in tax burden on individuals' incomes to 12 percent and adjustments to total wages in the economy.
On the supply side, growth will be supported by a significant increase in production in construction sector (annual growth rate of 11.8 percent), industry (6.4 percent), services (6.1 percent) and agriculture (3 percent).
The annual inflation rate at the end of the period is projected at 15.5 percent (14.3 percent in 2018). Starting in 2020, in order to curb inflation, measures will be taken to maintain lending growth at a level not exceeding the nominal GDP growth rate.
According to the results of the year, foreign trade turnover is projected at $41.5 billion with an increase of 24.1 percent ($33.4 billion in 2018) with exports of $18 billion (+28.7 percent) and imports up to $23.5 billion (+20.9 percent).
Gold and foreign exchange reserves are projected to reach $27.7 billion ($26.4 billion in 2018). External public debt is expected to reach $15 billion or 25.8 percent of GDP ($9.8 billion, or 19.8 percent of GDP in 2018).
---
Follow author on Twitter:@vakilovfaxri